This study investigates how energy production, which plays a significant role in the economies of countries dependent on oil revenues, affects global energy price dynamics. Drawing particular attention to the Rentier State Theory, the study analyzes the long- and short-term interactions among five key indicators (oil price, public expenditure, exchange rate, corruption control, and carbon emissions) using data from 16 countries between 2001 and 2016, a period of high volatility in global energy markets. The Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) was used for this study. The analysis results indicate that oil prices are significantly affected in the long term by macroeconomic indicators, environmental factors, and, in particular, GDP growth and carbon emissions, but their short-term effects are more limited. While the analysis results show that some macroeconomic indicators have an impact in the long term, in the short term, corruption and public spending were found to have no statistically significant effect on global oil prices. Policymakers are encouraged to develop solutions that consider longer-term dynamics rather than short-term plans and measures. This study provides new insights into how local structural conditions, particularly in the Rentier States, significantly influence and shape the volatility of global oil price movements.

Full article: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/22/6057